Author: Tushar Sharma, V year of B.B.A.,LL.B. from Chanderprabhu Jain College of Higher studies and school of law, affiliated to ggsipu, New Delhi
Co-author: Riddhi Sharma, V year of B.B.A.,LL.B. from Chanderprabhu Jain College of Higher studies and school of law, affiliated to ggsipu, New Delhi
ABSTRACT
The article highlights all the issues and probably all the possible consequences that this war between Russia and Ukraine may bring into. As a result of , this issue has garnered special place in global politics because of its serious and powerful idea of invasion , it can club the power and it can break it into fragments too. The basic rather key ingredient of this war is to know and to analyze that what makes this strive for power and then for more power, does it actually glorify the powerful country’s status or its just a fake remark to celebrate the death of the innocents . As Russia emerges as the largest exporters of most precious metals including crops , materials with vast reserves of oil and gas on a huge land – mass expanding towards eastern Europe and northern Asia. The country wants to intensify its global reach and to remind people across the World that it is also one of the ancient and the powerful civilizations of all. But on the contrary , people of Ukraine also deserves Justice on why the innocent lives being taken for just expanding territorial power over human misuse. Russia would never intend to weaken its borders and let Ukraine to join NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization ) principally headed by U.S.A. which will pose serious military issues to Russia in future . In this article we will discuss all about India’s stance over this whole crisis and to analyze its potential over strategic and foreign affairs.
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTREMITY
The extremity is the huge uproar between two world powers between the east and the west as the two neighboring countries which is Russia and Ukraine would not have engulfed into serious war crisis if there would not have any instigation elements to Ukraine by the EU and the U.S.A. , the west always wanted to have supremacy over world resources and considerable world economy , here we are not criticizing the west for this but we want that there should be a balance of power among the east and west and why should Russia would allow Ukraine to enter the NATO equally when both the countries have same culture, language and society , it has been traced since soviet union times. West should have encouraged and promoted Ukraine to join CSTO but by not doing so they are in a very close proximity to suffer Russia’s wrath. This whole crisis began to ruin Ukraine in the last week of Feb, 2022. The U.S.A. has imposed serious sanctions on Russia which is making its economy to sink. The basic reason for this war is that Russia does not want dominance of West in its neighbor to weaken its sovereignty. However this is not the first time that Russia had invaded Ukraine but it also happened in the year 2014 , at that time Russia had captured Crimea, according to Ukraine , Russia is also accused of breaching the Minsk peace accord which was signed for the purpose of bringing a hault in the armed crisis in Ukraine.
THE EVIL IMPACTS OF THIS WAR
1. INFLATIONARY YEARS : If this war remains continued for a long time , it will come as no surprise that the inflation levels will rise to hell as major countries can participate probably, if it is not discontinued sooner and God forbid if it leads to WW3 then the situation will be a surprise for every human being on this earth. As Russia is the chief producer and exporter of crude oil and natural gas, and India is a beneficiary too and if the war reaches its dead end India would too experience inflation in crude oil and natural gas prices, we would have to struggle for our energy consumption requirements.
2. NO / LOW FOOD SECURITY : As Russia is also the world’s largest wheat exporter , and it is also a major food supplier to Europe.
THE U.S. – INDIA RELATIONS
We have to take decisions very carefully because China’s expansionist policies in its neighboring countries and international waters have a very everlasting and serious impacts, so India has to look upon at this matter with grave intelligence and diplomacy and we have to adopt an approach that is equidistance from both sides which is to calibrating its stand between Russia on the one hand and the West led by the US on the other. This is of serious concern that the partnership we share with the U.S keeps utmost importance to our actions on the foreign and global fronts because we require assistance of U.S for balancing China in the Asia-Pacific region, and considerably the challenges that China’s increasingly aggressive behavior poses to peace and security and prosperity in this region.
HOW IS CHINA TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS WAR?
Right now, U.S. full attention is on Europe, and that is actually not good for India because this Ukraine conflict is distracting the United States from the challenges posed by China in the Indo- Pacific region; if the U.S. or NATO get involved in Ukraine militarily, it will diversify the US resources and jeopardize its Indo-Pacific strategy, which is even better for China. In fact, if the US and Russia get entangled in Ukraine for long, it will give China another 5-10 years of development opportunities, after which China will become somewhat unstoppable.
China is the only country that has benefited directly from the military crisis in Ukraine," claimed Oleg Ustenko, Ukraine's presidential economic adviser. Mr Ustenko, speaking live from Kyiv at a Peterson Institute for International Economics conference, called for a global embargo on Russian oil and gas, congratulating the United States for banning Russian oil but criticizing Europe for continuing to buy it while Ukrainians suffer. And also China will measure U.S. appetite as to how far it will push for Ukraine then draw a parallel with the Taiwan issue.
And if China becomes a mediator in this whole affair, it will turn out to be a safe and secure turn for their foreign and strategic partnership on a global front , because the reputation of China had badly tarnished after the corona crisis and it will become as a safe play to raise their global reputation as many businesses and global supply chains had to restrict or close their operations in China due to travel and other restrictions, hampering its economy . The mediator card can help China to regain and boost its economy for several years.
INDIA PRAISE ON STRATEGIC & GEOPOLITICAL ETHICS
As of now, the war is ongoing between Russia and Ukraine. European Union and the USA are in support of Ukraine. China is subtly supporting Russia. India is firm on its stand and has not yielded to the requests and threats from countries like the U.S. So now the question is whether India, as a country that follows the principle of Vasudhev Kutumbkum and Gandhi’s ideal of non-violence, has not criticized the act of aggression of Russia.
The answer to this question lies in how international relations and diplomacy work. Here national interests are prioritized. Diplomatic relations of India are being driven by pragmatism now under the leadership of S. Jaishankar, and the idealism based international engagements are the things of the past. He also said "Our position is not that this is not our problem; our position is that we are for peace."
India has also provided 90 tonnes of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. India maintained a balance between pressure from one strategic partner to condemn the violation of international law and force from another to understand its legitimate concerns. Also, in the past, India effectively managed these pressures during the 2014 Crimea annexation crisis, and it will do so again.
Thus India’s stand can be summed up as the balancing stand that follows the national interests in the current geopolitical scenario. This is also evident from the fact that India has abstained from the resolutions of both sides in the United Nations.
EAM S. Jaishankar said ‘ We are strongly against the conflict, we believe that no solution can be arrived at by shedding blood at the cost of innocent lives’.. Lok Sabha discussion on Ukraine crisis
If India has chosen a side, it is a side of peace & it is for an immediate end to violence. Dr. Jaishankar also claimed that we want an independent inquiry for the whole matter.
WHAT IF IT LEADS TO WWIII?
We must recognise that the entire Russia-Ukraine issue is not between Russia and Ukraine, but rather between the United States and the European Union, with Ukraine serving as the battleground.
One of the main reasons for this is that Ukraine receives direct military assistance from major international powers, therefore rendering them an indirect party to the conflict. Ukraine has received military aid of Rs 12 thousand 355 crores from 27 European Union nations so far.
Apart from that, the US has provided military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of Rs 19 thousand crores since February. NATO has also stepped in to help Ukraine by supplying missiles and other hazardous weaponry to counter Russia. This implies that all of the nations that have moved against Russia, whether directly or indirectly, have become active participants in the conflict. This is why Russia refers to the conflict with Ukraine as "World War 3."
We are in WW3, only people fail to see it’s economic, not military. The political equations have changed a lot with most countries holding nuclear weapons in their arsenal. the situation in WW 1 and WW 2 has changed a lot. The fights were happening in the field mostly. Nowadays, it has shifted to diplomacy talks for various rounds until they find a mutually agreeable solution.
There are possibilities hanging around, which in turn will be there at all times whether there is a current tension between Russia and Ukraine happening or not. It has only accelerated the changes. In reality, every nation knows the importance of avoiding a conflict, most probably averting a war/direct confrontation.
That is the prime reason why US/NATO is not sending troops or involve directly in the Ukraine conflict. They know pretty well that any minor miscalculation would make things spiral out of control and propagate to a major disaster.
REFERENCES
2. https://www.bloomberg.com Understanding the Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine
3.https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-the-conflict-explainned-in-5-points-2786200
4.https://www.dailypioneer.com Russia welcomes India as mediator